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The Japanese Donald Trump?

#1
http://www.breitbart.com/news/abe-cruise...apan-vote/
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#2
In my opinion, Motoya Toshio is the Donald Trump of Japan.
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#3
(2017-10-22, 9:16 pm)fkb9g Wrote: In my opinion, Motoya Toshio is the Donald Trump of Japan.

Nah, sounds more like a mix between Hillary ('Muh America!' in place of 'Muh Russia!'; though to be fair, I'm sure that American influence in Japanese politics is far, far heavier than Russian influence in American politics) and the Alt-Right ('Da Jews did it!').

Only correlation to Trump is that he's a businessman involved in politics.
Unless you're suggesting that Trump frequently denies that the US forced Natives to cross the Appalachians, did unethical testing of nuclear weapons and radioactive substances, or some other horrible thing that was done by the US.
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#4
(2017-10-22, 9:05 pm)phil321 Wrote: http://www.breitbart.com/news/abe-cruise...apan-vote/

No. For starters, Abe is popular, and won the election.
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#5
(2017-10-23, 2:15 am)Stansfield123 Wrote:
(2017-10-22, 9:05 pm)phil321 Wrote: http://www.breitbart.com/news/abe-cruise...apan-vote/

No. For starters, Abe is popular, and won the election.

Not sure what your point is supposed to be Stansfield123, but have a nice day anyway.
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#6
(2017-10-22, 9:05 pm)phil321 Wrote: http://www.breitbart.com/news/abe-cruise...apan-vote/
Nah, Abe isn't even remotely like Trump. For starters, Abe is a born and raised politician, so he's better at navigating that landscape and actually getting some things done. Abe's power and support also largely arises from within the party. To me, Trump's most defining feature in getting the office was that he utilized a populist platform to the extreme and shocked people by doing it.

The closet person that has pulled that off in Japan has been Koizumi. Prior to Koizumi, PM elections were largely internal affairs of the parties and didn't really spill out into the public, at least that's what my Japanese Politics class taught me. Koizumi broke that mold and turned the Diet elections into an election for the PM office by extension. Most politicians at the time thought he was young and crazy, but it turned out to be highly effective and shocked the Diet.

EDIT: There were also a number of legislative changes that occurred around the elections of Koizumi that made it possible for him to pull it off. I believe there were changes in how the Lower House elections worked.
Edited: 2017-10-23, 6:53 am
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#7
(2017-10-23, 5:16 am)phil321 Wrote:
(2017-10-23, 2:15 am)Stansfield123 Wrote:
(2017-10-22, 9:05 pm)phil321 Wrote: http://www.breitbart.com/news/abe-cruise...apan-vote/

No. For starters, Abe is popular, and won the election.

Not sure what your point is supposed to be Stansfield123, but have a nice day anyway.

if you just leave that link here, with no explanation why a polished establishment conservative is the japanese version of an ignorant outsider populist, accused by dozens of women of sexual assault, then I think you're trolling us...

but maybe you could say that Bill Cosby was the Donald Trump of television...??
or that Harvey Weinstein was the Donald Trump of movie production...??
Edited: 2017-10-24, 12:09 am
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#8
(2017-10-24, 12:06 am)dtcamero Wrote: if you just leave that link here, with no explanation why a polished establishment conservative is the japanese version of an ignorant outsider populist, accused by dozens of women of sexual assault, then I think you're trolling us...

but maybe you could say that Bill Cosby was the Donald Trump of television...??
or that Harvey Weinstein was the Donald Trump of movie production...??

You hate the guy, I get it.

That's no reason to give any credibility to accusations like 'he touched my leg inappropriately 10 years ago'. Accusations that disappeared right after elections, I might add.
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#9
I don't click on fake news, can anyone tell me a tl;dr?

Is someone just calling abe 'japanese trump' because they have poor understandings of international politics and they call any right-wing leader donald trump?
Edited: 2017-10-24, 4:10 am
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#10
@Zgarbas
Skimmed the article, and I guess he's just saying it because they both won? Don't get it. Trump lost the popular vote. The only time the article mentions Trump is here:

"As I promised in the election, my imminent task is to firmly deal with North Korea,” said Abe, who is now on course to become the country’s longest-serving leader.
“For that, strong diplomacy is required,” stressed the 63 year-old, who has courted both US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin."

Abe's policies really creep me out, but at least he's not the sexist, racist guy Trump is, at least as far as I can tell living in the US. I'm amazed Trump hasn't started a stupid war with every other country on earth yet....
Edited: 2017-10-24, 6:14 am
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#11
(2017-10-24, 6:08 am)Bokusenou Wrote: Skimmed the article, and I guess he's just saying it because they both won? Don't get it. Trump lost the popular vote.
Abe's policies really creep me out, but at least he's not the sexist, racist guy Trump is, at least as far as I can tell living in the US. I'm amazed Trump hasn't started a stupid war with every other country on earth yet.

In the US, as they say, the path to the White House is the Electoral College, not the popular vote.  Trump won the Electoral College by a large margin.  As has been explained many times, if the US election were decided by the popular vote, you'd have elections being decided by a couple of cities at the fringes:  San Francisco, NY, Chicago etc.  The purpose of the Electoral College system is to give a voice to voters across the whole country.  So people in Montana have a say in who wins, not just people sitting at Starbucks in Manhattan.
Edited: 2017-10-24, 6:20 am
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#12
(2017-10-23, 6:49 am)vix86 Wrote:
(2017-10-22, 9:05 pm)phil321 Wrote: http://www.breitbart.com/news/abe-cruise...apan-vote/
Nah, Abe isn't even remotely like Trump. For starters, Abe is a born and raised politician, so he's better at navigating that landscape and actually getting some things done. Abe's power and support also largely arises from within the party. To me, Trump's most defining feature in getting the office was that he utilized a populist platform to the extreme and shocked people by doing it.

The closet person that has pulled that off in Japan has been Koizumi. Prior to Koizumi, PM elections were largely internal affairs of the parties and didn't really spill out into the public, at least that's what my Japanese Politics class taught me. Koizumi broke that mold and turned the Diet elections into an election for the PM office by extension. Most politicians at the time thought he was young and crazy, but it turned out to be highly effective and shocked the Diet.

EDIT: There were also a number of legislative changes that occurred around the elections of Koizumi that made it possible for him to pull it off. I believe there were changes in how the Lower House elections worked.

This. If you've watched Abe at all, you know he's a consummate politician who can play the field better than almost anyone. Consider that, after being plagued by two back to back scandals (森友学園問題 and 加計学園問題) and watching his approval rate plummet to record low levels, his party *still* managed to not only win re-election, but along with the Koumeitou, secure a Constitution-altering majority in the Diet. One can argue that this was partially due to unforced errors by his opponents - e.g., Maekawa effectively dissolving the Minshintou and merging with the Kibou no Tou; Koike Yuriko failing to put forward an agenda that actually separated her from her Jimintou roots, the sudden rise of the Rikken Minshutou, etc. But the whole disaster pivoted off of Abe forcing an early election and basically sending his opposition into a tailspin.

In general, the Japanese public lately seems to be placing a value on constancy and stability above scandal. I read something in 朝日新聞 that, of all the politicians caught up in scandal in the past year (このはげー!), over 80% were re-elected to office. It looks like the death of shock and scandal in politics isn't purely a US phenomenon.

Re: election processes and Koizumi - Vix, are you referring to the 小選挙区制度? I've read a little bit about that in news items and some historical round-ups, but am not intimately familiar with it.
Edited: 2017-10-24, 7:48 pm
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#13
(2017-10-24, 6:19 am)phil321 Wrote:  The purpose of the Electoral College system is to give a voice to voters across the whole country.  So people in Montana have a say in who wins, not just people sitting at Starbucks in Manhattan.

and yet the tyranny of the majority is actually what a democracy is, is it not? following the will of most of the people... this is why the house of representatives is more representative of popular opinion than the senate (or should be... gerrymandering aside)

but as for your point about the origins of the electoral college, that is an often-told revisionist account of the original purpose. 
when the constitution was written the economic power centers of the united states were all the rural, slaveholding states... not the populous coastal cities.
the electoral college system was created to ensure that rural slaveholders would have a larger share of the political pie, and so those states' citizens were given as much as 3x the voting power of populous coastal states.

the founding fathers didn't imagine that after slavery, as those states declining economies brought declines in education and political literacy, that this gerrymandered electoral system would empower those least capable of enlightened decision making.


@gaiaslastlaugh 
that's a really interesting analysis, thanks!
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#14
You know, this has become a kind of fascinating thread on Japanese and American politics, and how they can go awry. Bookmarking this thread.
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#15
(2017-10-24, 4:30 pm)dtcamero Wrote:
(2017-10-24, 6:19 am)phil321 Wrote:  The purpose of the Electoral College system is to give a voice to voters across the whole country.  So people in Montana have a say in who wins, not just people sitting at Starbucks in Manhattan.

and yet the tyranny of the majority is actually what a democracy is, is it not? following the will of most of the people... this is why the house of representatives is more representative of popular opinion than the senate (or should be... gerrymandering aside)

but as for your point about the origins of the electoral college, that is an often-told revisionist account of the original purpose. 
when the constitution was written the economic power centers of the united states were all the rural, slaveholding states... not the populous coastal cities.
the electoral college system was created to ensure that rural slaveholders would have a larger share of the political pie, and so those states' citizens were given as much as 3x the voting power of populous coastal states.

the founding fathers didn't imagine that after slavery, as those states declining economies brought declines in education and political literacy, that this gerrymandered electoral system would empower those least capable of enlightened decision making.


@gaiaslastlaugh 
that's a really interesting analysis, thanks!

You say that "this gerrymandered electoral system would empower those least capable of enlightened decision making."  And who would those unenlightened people be?  Those who happen to disagree with you?
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#16
(2017-10-24, 4:30 pm)dtcamero Wrote:
(2017-10-24, 6:19 am)phil321 Wrote:  The purpose of the Electoral College system is to give a voice to voters across the whole country.  So people in Montana have a say in who wins, not just people sitting at Starbucks in Manhattan.

and yet the tyranny of the majority is actually what a democracy is, is it not? following the will of most of the people... this is why the house of representatives is more representative of popular opinion than the senate (or should be... gerrymandering aside)
And the US doesn't elect it's president through a purely democratic system. And whatever the original intention, the result today is that a few cities don't hold all of the votes for president.
Other than being a completely out of touch, unlikeable politician, Hillary's failure to win the election against the person everyone thought was a joke candidate was the failure to play the electoral college game (she didn't hold any rallies in key locations).

The failure of other Republican candidates to appeal to conservatives that aren't super religious is what won Trump the primary, and the failure to appeal to key voting populations that Trump resonated with is what lost the election for Hillary (I might as well not even vote, given that the state I live in always votes Republican; similarly, Hillary appealed the most in locations that always vote Democrat; those places tend to have very high populations).

Also, the electoral college is only slightly removed from a popular vote:
https://www.archives.gov/federal-registe...ctors.html
Quote:Choosing each state's Electors is a two-part process. First, the political parties in each state choose slates of potential Electors sometime before the general election. Second, on Election Day, the voters in each state select their state's Electors by casting their ballots for President.

In other words, voting for the president is actually voting for which people will vote for president in your state (with each state having a number of electors available based on population). According to the above link, despite the fact that there is no federal requirement for electors to vote as pledged (though some states do require this), 99% of them have throughout history.

Thanks for making me look that up, it was interesting to learn. What wasn't interesting was how close that link was to an Alternet article saying that Trump was elected by illegitimate electors, according to a source that said that the Russians made Trump win by hacking the ballots (no, I haven't checked all of the electors for 2016 to see if their source was right, but Alternet is about as likely to print something reasonable as Alex Jones (though he actually got the thing with turning the frogs gay somewhat correct; look up how atrazine affects frogs)).

dtcamero Wrote:the founding fathers didn't imagine that after slavery, as those states declining economies brought declines in education and political literacy, that this gerrymandered electoral system would empower those least capable of enlightened decision making.
I see you're in favor of a technocracy, because that's the only way you're going to control suffrage based on intelligence, not with the popular vote. Take a look at IQ or SAT (IQ that requires math and language knowledge, basically) distributions for any population. Most people are not geniuses; in fact, most people are of about average intelligence (it's a normal distribution, so duh), no matter where you go. And, especially today, everyone has access to all the same propaganda machines (a.k.a. 'news sources').
Therefore, a dipshit from California (most of which votes Republican, by the way; only the major cities vote Democrat; they just have all the pull due to their population) is no more qualified to have an 'enlightened decision' than a dipshit from Georgia.

TLDR: Your elitism shone through with that last sentence.
Edited: 2017-10-24, 9:25 pm
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#17
Ah, so the false equation I was expecting. Thanks for the tl;dr.

I think Abe's success says more about the Japanese people's desire for stability than anything (Also, hello! Complete lack of opposition. Who else are they going to elect?). Re-Electing Abe and the Jimintou isn't about change or revolution so much as wanting things to stay as they are, or just being afraid of the new. While Abe is right-wing, the only thing that's innovative about him is his persistence. While he does match trump'a agenda (if he can be said to have one) they have nothing in common beyond that. Of course Abe will support whoever is in charge of the US, though I think he'd have gotten along better with someone more consistent (be it Hillary or Bernie, Jeb or really anyone). His desrie to be on good terms with whoever is running does make him a good friend for trump (who places approval over anything, so I am sure Trump sees him as a good friend).

This isn't populist politics winning or people electing someone to bring about change, it's literally electing the establishment to keep things as they are. And I don't see Abe as popular so much as trusted, though that does bring in the popular vote in the end.

The problem with the electoral college perhaps mirrors the problem with the ability to vote locally here. Much like the electoral college drowns out urban votes, the requirement to only vote in your constituency here drowns out the votes of students, people who move temporarily, etc. many of my colleagues have problems voting because it requires a trip back home. But even that's a bit of a stretch as comparisons go.

I think that calling Asian politicians 'this place's trump' is a tactic of legitimising trump's position: hey look, the rest of the world is also electing crazy leaders, we're not the only ones electing silly presidents. But abe and trump are completely different cups of tea.
Edited: 2017-10-24, 10:37 pm
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#18
(2017-10-24, 9:46 pm)Zgarbas Wrote: But abe and trump are completely different cups of tea.

Yet they enjoy playing golf together!  On November 5th Trump will go to Japan and play golf with Abe.  Earlier this year Trump hosted Abe down in Florida where they played golf together.  Sounds like "best buds" to me.
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#19
Isn't that mostly just a photo op though? Like when Trump shook Abe's hand for way too long, and Abe gave an exasperated look at the end. All the Japanese news shows I caught that day just showed just the middle of that clip and cut before the handshake ended. You can make a lot of people who aren't good friends look like they are with decent video editing skills.
It seems like Abe might just be trying to stay on Trump's good side because Trump has a lot of power.
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#20
Abe is definitely trying hard to stay on Trump`s side, and Trump likes people who try to stay on his good side. I am sure Abe will be a very good ally. It`s just that he is a good ally to the president of the united states, not to trump in particular.

Playing golf with your work colleagues is not a hobby, it`s a job requirement. You wouldn`t expect to see a politician frowning in a campaign photo, but that does not necessarily mean he`s about to burst into song every moment of the day because he is so goddamned happy all the time...

Would you?
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#21
(2017-10-24, 10:36 pm)Zgarbas Wrote: Abe is definitely trying hard to stay on Trump`s side, and Trump likes people who try to stay on his good side. I am sure Abe will be a very good ally. It`s just that he is a good ally to the president of the united states, not to trump in particular.

Playing golf with your work colleagues is not a hobby, it`s a job requirement. You wouldn`t expect to see a politician frowning in a campaign photo, but that does not necessarily mean he`s about to burst into song every moment of the day because he is so goddamned happy all the time...

Would you?

I have to agree with this.
I'm fairly sure that most people who golf only do so because it's what you have to do when you're trying to make or maintain powerful connections, whether that be in global politics or business politics.
(The above is a joke, btw; I know there are people that actually like golf)

And Trump's openness with his opinions is the exception in politics. Most politicians are Clintons or Bushes (with varying degrees of obvious corruption and two-faced-ness) who have a different face for the press and the business leaders, trying to do everything they can to amass support. Going golfing with and smiling for a photo with the president of the US is about as obvious a choice as you can make.
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#22
Take the most fun activity you can think of, do it with your work colleagues in Japan and it will become a duty. They even make going to a brothel sound like work Tongue.

Regarding the smiling picture while standing side-by-side... Oddly enough, on a national level it is the opposite way around with Abe&Trump PR. Trump getting elected kind of changed how Japanese people see the US. Most people don't trust Trump, but they trust Abe. By showing that they get along, he is actually doing PR for trump's side as well (If you want to change the constitution to be a better ally to the US, you need people to support the US). Mainichi Shinbun ran a special where they asked each politician about their stance on various issues, and 'do you trust Trump' was one of the questions, alongside actual national policy issues.
Edited: 2017-10-25, 12:20 am
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#23
(2017-10-24, 11:58 am)gaiaslastlaugh Wrote: Re: election processes and Koizumi - Vix, are you referring to the 小選挙区制度? I've read a little bit about that in news items and some historical round-ups, but am not intimately familiar with it.

Ya, pretty much. I'm not exactly sure how the previous system worked since I never looked into it, but the current system allows more non-traditional people to gain seats in the lower house. I suspect there were probably some changes made as well as to how the proportionality was handled as well. A number of the lower house elections for the past decade or so have been ruled invalid by the Supreme Court over issues with seats not being properly proportional in representation, but the Court has never gone so far as to invalidate any decisions the house makes or to force re-elections.

I believe a number of election laws changed around Koizumi's time as well. The election process became a lot more regulated in an attempt to drive out the possibility of corruption, stuff like spending limits, how much advertisement a campaign is allowed to do officially, and so on. It had no affect on Koizumi's election really, but after he got in office they also passed laws stem amakudari(天下り).

dtcamero Wrote:and yet the tyranny of the majority is actually what a democracy is, is it not? following the will of most of the people... this is why the house of representatives is more representative of popular opinion than the senate (or should be... gerrymandering aside)
Even then, the house doesn't quite do what it was suppose to. The House has been hard locked at the number of representatives it can have, which is really what has caused the effects of gerrymandering to be so pronounced. There have been grass root movements for years now to try and get the House tied back to actual population values. If you google something like "increase seats in house of representatives" you'll find people talking about it. If the house was set up to follow the original founder's ideas on the House, then we would have about 6,000 seats in the house right now.

We might see a small increase in seats in the next few decades, but I don't expect much. Neither party actually wants to increase the number of seats because it dilutes the power that they do have. 6,000 seats for instance, would make it pretty much impossible for any party to put time and money into securing seats. For the citizens though, that's exactly what we want though and it was the whole point of the House of Repr. in the first place.

Zgarbas Wrote:This isn't populist politics winning or people electing someone to bring about change, it's literally electing the establishment to keep things as they are. And I don't see Abe as popular so much as trusted, though that does bring in the popular vote in the end.
It was mentioned I think, but it is also important to keep in mind that Abe doesn't technically run for election per say, not in the same way that the US President does. The elections in Japan have been structured in recent years to function in that manner however. When Abe steps down, they'll probably dissolve the Diet and do another election (they might be forced too, not sure what their constitution says) and the people seeking to take over as PM will step up. The difference between the two countries though is that if the political parties in Japan field shitty Diet members, it's just as likely that a "good" PM will fail to get elected. It's also possible that none of the people that stepped up to be the next PM get chosen, because the Diet could theoretically become split along multiple party lines and a compromise of an entirely different person is picked.
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#24
(2017-10-25, 12:20 am)Zgarbas Wrote: Take the most fun activity you can think of, do it with your work colleagues in Japan and it will become a duty. They even make going to a brothel sound like work Tongue.

Regarding the smiling picture while standing side-by-side... Oddly enough, on a national level it is the opposite way around with Abe&Trump PR. Trump getting elected kind of changed how Japanese people see the US. Most people don't trust Trump, but they trust Abe. By showing that they get along, he is actually doing PR for trump's side as well (If you want to change the constitution to be a better ally to the US, you need people to support the US). Mainichi Shinbun ran a special where they asked each politician about their stance on various issues, and 'do you trust Trump' was one of the questions, alongside actual national policy issues.

I don't believe world leaders play golf with each other just for show if they actively dislike each other. Having played golf myself it simply takes up too much time and is too much of a pain in the ass.

"Most people don't trust Trump". The stock market obviously does.

(2017-10-25, 6:01 am)phil321 Wrote:
(2017-10-25, 12:20 am)Zgarbas Wrote: Take the most fun activity you can think of, do it with your work colleagues in Japan and it will become a duty. They even make going to a brothel sound like work Tongue.

Regarding the smiling picture while standing side-by-side... Oddly enough, on a national level it is the opposite way around with Abe&Trump PR. Trump getting elected kind of changed how Japanese people see the US. Most people don't trust Trump, but they trust Abe. By showing that they get along, he is actually doing PR for trump's side as well (If you want to change the constitution to be a better ally to the US, you need people to support the US). Mainichi Shinbun ran a special where they asked each politician about their stance on various issues, and 'do you trust Trump' was one of the questions, alongside actual national policy issues.

I don't believe world leaders play golf with each other just for show if they actively dislike each other.  Having played golf myself it simply takes up too much time and is too much of a pain in the ass.

"Most people don't trust Trump".  The stock market obviously does.  American confidence in the economy is higher now than under Obama. 
Edited: 2017-10-25, 6:33 am
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#25
(2017-10-25, 6:01 am)phil321 Wrote: "Most people don't trust Trump". The stock market obviously does.

The stock market is not a person.
Edited: 2017-10-25, 7:02 am
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