Hi there,

I was wondering if anybody had stumbled upon the recent developments earlier in this forum...

As you are a crowd of curious, interested and sophisticated individuals ;-) , I thought I might share the sources for those interested to form your own opinion.

More than 20 years after an announcement that didn't seem to satisfy the great expectations people had, this time it really seems as if there's something...

The inventor (maybe 'saver of mankind' would be a more apt title, let's see) of the "E-Cat" (Energy-Catalyzer) , who is 'just' an engineer from Italy... , claims to be able to perform a "low energy nuclear reaction" (LENR) with nickel (Ni, 28) and hydrogen (H) to form copper (Cu, 29). He seems to be eager to market his 'life time achivement' himself and thus keeps key details of the process (e.g. a secret catalyst) off the public eye,

"The international patent application received an unfavorable international preliminary report on patentability as it seemed to 'offend against the generally accepted laws of physics and established theories'... " (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Catalyzer)

, which raises, no doubt, a lot of skepticism. However there have been impressive demonstrations, early as January this year, of the excess energy "produced", that can't be explained by means of chemical sources.

Maybe the successful demonstration of a machine providing 1MW of thermal power, that he announced for October, and hence some hopeful reports in the mainstream media (wired, msnbc, forbes, bloomberg tv) have helped to overcome some of the damage that was incurred 20 years ago, as the announcement of 'cold fusion' was soon after regarded as one of the greatest hoaxes in scientific history. The small successes in the last years wouldn't be able to raise considerable interest of the daunted media. And there is obviously still a great care not to burn their fingers again.

I have collected some of the sources that may be a good starting point, before the mass media pick it up... I guess... I hope I'm not wrong. I know it sounds too good to be true, and I guess life will go on, if this proves to be wrong. But if not, we should be ready to defend this against the oil and energy mafia...

There is a small possibility, that this is all staged, but for what reasons then? Please, form your own opinion and then tell me, that you're also very skeptical but also very confident, that we will see an energy revolution... If you "know" that it just can't work, please open another thread!


The consequences of an energy source like this would be extreme, I guess... Consider, that the "energy problem" would also solve the "water problem" in some areas (by desalination). There wouldn't be any more reasons for "dirty" technologies as coal and nuclear fission. The greatest implication of a 'fuel cell' like device like this would probably be the decentralization of energy production and needlessness of the 'grid'. Next to coal and fission also 'hot fusion' scientists would probably get unemployed... just some thoughts... I mean, there is really no reason, that this shouldn't work!


...


- "This is a short summary of the E-cat test in Bologna 2011-10-06. Interviews conducted with Roland Pettersson, University of Uppsala, Mats Lewan of Nyteknik and Andrea Rossi." (uploaded 2011-10-10)

http://youtu.be/EhvD4KuAEmo (5min)


- "This film summarizes the main events from 2011-01-14's experiment to the present day and introduces the leading characters."
(Italian, English subtitles, Producer: PhiZero, phizero.it, (a sponsor?), uploaded 2011-06-23)

http://vimeo.com/25501969 (39min)
alternatively
http://youtu.be/NhKhGe6ztuc (part 1, 14min)
http://youtu.be/Kl6FOVnnIro (part 2, 14min)
http://youtu.be/V79rAMI1ACw (part 3, 11min)


- "The Game Changer: E-Cat Device from Andrea Rossi"
(English report with arguments from scientists, patent agents and industry who are ready to market the device, uploaded 2011-05-28)

http://youtu.be/t9I_CJti-RU (25min)


- Interview by Steven Krivits ("New Energy Times Blog") with Andrea Rossi and Sergio Focardi (theoretical physicist, his advisor).
(Italian, interpreted by A. Rossi himself, uploaded 2011-08-25, 32min)

http://youtu.be/OmWbVH5A4gI (part 1, 12min)
http://youtu.be/Qa_5oEtx1NY (part 2, 9min)
http://youtu.be/J65maznCyiM (part3, 11min)


- Andrea Rossi giving a tour of his device (uploaded 2011-06-20)

http://youtu.be/m-8QdVwY98E (14min)

lernsky Wrote:I mean, there is really no reason, that this shouldn't work!

Except, you know, the laws of the universe as we understand them.

He refuses to prove his process other than by running a test for only the buyer. My stance is that it would stand up to scrutiny if it were possible, and he's probably either hoodwinked the buyer, or the buyer is in on it.

On the other hand, with all the idiots that make fun of cold fusion, but don't understand anything about it, if I had invented it... Well, I wouldn't prove it either. I'd do exactly what he's doing: Profit off it for as long as possible before patenting it. And then continue to profit.

Hey, I'm a bit of a paranormal / free energy nut and have been following this story from the beginning. At first with all the scientist and university involvement, it seemed very real, but unfortunately by this stage my gut feeling is that it's a scam. Reasons:

- Each public showing seems to leave out 1 or 2 crucial measurements that would 100% prove this was genuine. With each new demonstration, he tries to silence previous criticisms but "forgets" to measure something new or disallows a vital test. So far we've had discrepancies with steam quality (i.e. how much water is actually converted to steam), placement of internal temperature probes, and no measurement of energy input during the start-up process. At first it seemed odd and was put down to his poor scientific credentials, by now it's extremely suspicious.

Even treating the device as complete a black box and not revealing any of the internal workings, it should be simple to prove that it is producing energy from an un-known source. This still hasn't been done conclusively.

- Critics were all meant to be silenced by this final 1MW plant demo last month. Unfortunately this big unveiling the plant only produced 0.5MW..and had a diesel generator plugged into it throughout the test (allegedly to run the pumps). This generator could easily generate the power the plant supposedly gave - we have to take Rossi's word for it that it wasn't hooked up to the output..

- A "customer" allegedly bought the plant after the test - but due to contract agreements, their identity is completely secret. Again, we only have Rossi's word that this customer exists..very fishy..

- Rossi served time in jail due to a tax fraud. He was also involved in a scam where he claimed he had invented a new high-efficiency solar panel, which was subsequently proven to be fake with the test results falsified.

- The New Energy Times (http://blog.newenergytimes.com/), a leading cold fusion site, sent their editor to one of the tests - and they now believe it's a scam. This to me is the most damning evidence.

Why would he stage something like this? Like all other before him, it'll be for money or fame. Most energy scams end in 2 ways; being found out, or delay-delay-delay then disappear. Of course I'm still slightly open (i.e. really hoping) this is real, so very interested to see how this plays out.

Sounds super fishy.

On an unrelated note, have any of you heard of expanding earth theory?
I hope this is true. It somehow seems much more plausible to me than the standard theory, though I'm no geologist...

I'm no geologist either but I got confused when he started talking about "upper tectonic plates". What are those supposed to be?

I'm baffled that this has gotten so much attention. They haven't really proved anything, the guy himself sounds and looks like a totally obvious scammer, the outdrawn business transactions (some unidentified customer who was totally going to buy it couldn't but it because of "contractual problems"! oh no!) and general shadiness all imply that this is just a witchcrafting dude.

(oh aphasiac posted before me. nice post aphasiac!)
(nadiatims: what. that video is hella annoying and doesn't make any sense. also there is a guy right there in the 'most thumbs up' comments linking a paper debunking that... theory, if it can be called that)

nadiatims Wrote:On an unrelated note, have any of you heard of expanding earth theory?

Hey, thanks for mixing the "expanding earth theory" in. That makes my cold fusion post really look like proven science... :o|

Haha

nadiatims Wrote:Sounds super fishy.

On an unrelated note, have any of you heard of expanding earth theory?
I hope this is true. It somehow seems much more plausible to me than the standard theory, though I'm no geologist...

IceCream Wrote:

Oh, ehm, haha... hey, do you think there is a way to open another thread. I can do it for you, in fact, I've got the technology

aphasiac Wrote:At first with all the scientist and university involvement, it seemed very real, but unfortunately...

This is what makes it also to me seem very real. I mean, I could imagine that these were actors or retired science staff, that are in for some attention. But that would seem like a giant joke that leads nowhere, whereas Mr. Rossi seems to take his case very seriously. I deem these 'scientific' gentlemen very credible. There is just a lot of coherence in what they're telling and how they 'act out' the whole situation.

aphasiac Wrote:At first it seemed odd and was put down to his poor scientific credentials, by now it's extremely suspicious.
Even treating the device as complete a black box and not revealing any of the internal workings, it should be simple to prove that it is producing energy from an un-known source. This still hasn't been done conclusively.

The case is that he doesn't hold an international patent (only national), for the reasons stated in the Wikipedia-article, and there seem to be already greedy investors who try to take this away and market it for their own profit.
My guess is that the technology hidden in the small 50ccm chamber isn't too difficult to reverse-engineer, so he should be extremely careful not to give this out of his hand. If made public beforehand, there is no way of getting 'copyright protection'. So maybe - this is a guess - he raises just the attention needed to resolve this patent issue soon. The public eye is witness for he's in posession of the technology. He wont keep it back, because he's selfish, but he's wise enough to take care of copycats. I think this behaviour would make sense and could account for all this 'fishiness'.

aphasiac Wrote:He was also involved in a scam where he claimed he had invented a new high-efficiency solar panel, which was subsequently proven to be fake with the test results falsified.

Do you have a source for that? Unfortunately I can't find any hints...

aphasiac Wrote:The New Energy Times (http://blog.newenergytimes.com/), a leading cold fusion site, sent their editor to one of the tests - and they now believe it's a scam. This to me is the most damning evidence.

All the same, I can't find any hint that they rule out the possibility of a successful experiment. I only noticed a begrudging tone in Krivits' interviews and the attempt to elicit anything that would discredit Focardi and Rossi. Just my feeling that Krivits is the only fishy guy in the pool...

aphasiac Wrote:Why would he stage something like this? Like all other before him, it'll be for money or fame. Most energy scams end in 2 ways; being found out, or delay-delay-delay then disappear. Of course I'm still slightly open (i.e. really hoping) this is real, so very interested to see how this plays out.

Hmm... well, do you think he could keep the money if it came out everything was faked? To become a famous cheater would he pick this field which is soaked with doubts? I think Pons and Fleischmann in 1989 found infinitesimal traces of this phenomenon (using Pd), that were just too easy to be brushed aside. Also consider, that the "oil mafia" is comfortable with a projected rise of fusion energy in the range of 2050 (they're willing to pay the bill, only peanuts...), which is the case with hot fusion, but scared of a sudden unexpectedly cheap source of energy. I think it just can't be held back any further...

lernsky Wrote:This is what makes it also to me seem very real. I mean, I could imagine that these were actors or retired science staff, that are in for some attention. But that would seem like a giant joke that leads nowhere, whereas Mr. Rossi seems to take his case very seriously. I deem these 'scientific' gentlemen very credible. There is just a lot of coherence in what they're telling and how they 'act out' the whole situation.

I don't want to answer in aphasiac's place, but did you watch the video with Rossi himself? That's... that's not what I call 'serious', that's what I call 'laughably obviously staged'. Also you can simply check his wikipedia page if you want to read about his not-so-clean history http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrea_Ross...preneur%29 Come ON, this guy is just insulting proper science! I feel sorry for all the old physicists who want to see a miracle before they die and fall for this kind of stuff...

I'm curious but skeptical, I'll believe it when I see it.

Though I've read on some physics forum an interesting dissection of this experiment/demonstration done by supposedly renowned physicist (Nobel Prize involved or something) and it raised very interesting points, mainly in favor of this Italian guy. Maybe he is onto something

The fact the title of this topic ends in a question mark says a lot.

An end to world hunger?

It obviously doesn't work--if it did Rossi would be able to cooperate with other scientists to set up an actual test that would give real evidence. That hasn't happened, because it's a scam.

hmm, i don't know. i don't even have basic physics knowledge, so it's impossible to comment really. But i don't think that "it's obviously false because it's not verified" is particularly the right way to look at things either.

Judging by the guy's past, he's quite a money grabber. So, if he either had discovered it OR it was a scam, he'd probably want to keep it secret.

If it's an all out scam, will he be able to get away with any money? Without any science knowledge, that's the big question...

i guess, more interestingly, if it's some kind of half-scam, can anything better be made from whatever he has discovered...? From what i've read so far, it seems like cold fusion has had some breakthroughs recently, even outside of this whole freakshow.

IceCream Wrote:

nadiatims Wrote:Sounds super fishy.

On an unrelated note, have any of you heard of expanding earth theory?
I hope this is true. It somehow seems much more plausible to me than the standard theory, though I'm no geologist...

This "theory" beats the expanding earth "theory" by an inch or two

Introducing the Hollow Earth Theory

No, if it's a legitimate discovery, there's no reason to keep it secret. You cannot file for patent protection without properly disclosing everything needed to recreate the patented device. If it's a legitimate breakthrough, someone making an independent discovery could file for a patent that would lock him out and there'd be nothing he could do.

Inventions aside, the way that science works is by peer review. If you don't disclose the methods for recreating the results, then you do not have a scientific breakthrough, you have hand-waving.

There's no proof that he's lying at this time, I suppose, other than his international patent claim being rejected for defying the known laws of science and being totally unproven... which is enough to prove that all is not well anyway.

There's no reason to give somebody credit in a case like this. "I have a black box that does things science says isn't possible, but I've made a great discovery... I know science is peer reviewed but in -my- case there's certain reasons I can't put all my cards on the table... " I've heard that before.


Please. If it was legitimately this great discovery, he could -give- away the science and still make, if not a fortune, then a comfortable living with books (ghost-written, of course!), speaking engagements, and television appearances on popular science shows.

Actually pursuing development also would have him as a major shareholder and on the board for a startup with all the advantages to bring it to market first (plus years of lead time if the patent is granted).

Playing it out like this.... I don't know, maybe he's getting paid for interviews or maybe he actually hopes to sell the rights to his nonsense and retire to an obscure tropical island with no extradition treaty. Maybe he just likes the limelight.

The problem isn't that it's not verified--the problem is that he won't let the scientific community verify it. The only reason for that is because the scientific community would find his claims to be false. Hence, it's a scam.

If the scientific community verifies it, he'll make more money, not less. After all, that's the only way he'll get a large amount of people to take him seriously. He'll also win the Nobel prize. So, you can't say that he won't let people verify it to protect his rights over the product.

Whenever someone is making a ridiculous scientific claim, and not putting it through the proper channels, it's a scam. It's always been that way.

lernsky Wrote:This is what makes it also to me seem very real. I mean, I could imagine that these were actors or retired science staff, that are in for some attention. But that would seem like a giant joke that leads nowhere, whereas Mr. Rossi seems to take his case very seriously. I deem these 'scientific' gentlemen very credible. There is just a lot of coherence in what they're telling and how they 'act out' the whole situation.
further...

No independent scientist has verified that it's real though. Some professors at the University of Bologna have gone on record to say it looks ok and the results seem credible; but that Italian university seems affiliated with Rossi, they're not truly neutral.

lernsky Wrote:My guess is that the technology hidden in the small 50ccm chamber isn't too difficult to reverse-engineer, so he should be extremely careful not to give this out of his hand. If made public beforehand, there is no way of getting 'copyright protection'. So maybe - this is a guess - he raises just the attention needed to resolve this patent issue soon. The public eye is witness for he's in posession of the technology. He wont keep it back, because he's selfish, but he's wise enough to take care of copycats. I think this behaviour would make sense and could account for all this 'fishiness'.

Like I said before - it should be possible to do an experiment that proves this is really cold fusion, without revealing how the device works. So far this hasn't been done.

Many people have commented with exact experiment methodologies that would give un-ambiguous results on Rossi's website, but he deletes those comments. Actually any difficult questions are deleted; this is another reason I'm suspicious.

lernsky Wrote:

aphasiac Wrote:He was also involved in a scam where he claimed he had invented a new high-efficiency solar panel, which was subsequently proven to be fake with the test results falsified.

Do you have a source for that? Unfortunately I can't find any hints...

Sorry it was thermo-electric panels, not solar. It's on his wikipedia page:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrea_Ross...repreneur)

lernsky Wrote:Hmm... well, do you think he could keep the money if it came out everything was faked? To become a famous cheater would he pick this field which is soaked with doubts? I think Pons and Fleischmann in 1989 found infinitesimal traces of this phenomenon (using Pd), that were just too easy to be brushed aside. Also consider, that the "oil mafia" is comfortable with a projected rise of fusion energy in the range of 2050 (they're willing to pay the bill, only peanuts...), which is the case with hot fusion, but scared of a sudden unexpectedly cheap source of energy. I think it just can't be held back any further...

This is why the story is interesting; I do believe cold fusion is possible, and the process Rossi is using seems credible. Problem is his behaviour so far has been that of a fraud.

As for keeping the money; it's likely he's already receiving money for this behind the scenes, but we'll never know about it. Another end to energy scams is receive investment - delay-delay-delay - then "sorry, actually it doesn't work as well as expected, I give up, BYE". This case will be interesting, as the truth will come out eventually.

IceCream Wrote:

nadiatims Wrote:Sounds super fishy.

On an unrelated note, have any of you heard of expanding earth theory?
I hope this is true. It somehow seems much more plausible to me than the standard theory, though I'm no geologist...

One problem with that rebuttal is that lack of an explained mechanism for expansion can't be used to dismiss the observed evidence for expansion. The mechanism for gravity isn't known either. Evolution is observable, but the details are yet to be ironed out. The video I posted doesn't really present the evidence for expansion, just a neat visualization. The main evidence is data on the age of the sea floor as explained more in this longer video. Neil Adam's explanation of nuclear fusion sounds crazy to me, but I figure the extra mass could be explained as coming from the 37000-78000 tons of meteors and dust that rains down on the Earth per year. The earth is gaining mass, so it makes sense that's growing. That is how it formed initially anyway, matter accumulating about a common center of gravity (correct me if I'm wrong). Evidence for subduction, which must be occurring for the Earth's size to remain fixed is seems far from conclusive.

Why not get a juicy royalty from an energy company (that may even turn him into the richest man on the planet), or from any other big corporate company for that matter, instead of doing random tests here and there for the public? Sounds like he wants investor moneys that will only go to his pocket.

SomeCallMeChris Wrote:Please. If it was legitimately this great discovery, he could -give- away the science and still make, if not a fortune, then a comfortable living with books (ghost-written, of course!), speaking engagements, and television appearances on popular science shows.

Haha

Tzadeck Wrote:The problem isn't that it's not verified--the problem is that he won't let the scientific community verify it. The only reason for that is because the scientific community would find his claims to be false. Hence, it's a scam.

You just don't know if this is the only reason, do you? On what base does your conclusion therfore stand?

Tzadeck Wrote:If the scientific community verifies it, he'll make more money, not less. After all, that's the only way he'll get a large amount of people to take him seriously. He'll also win the Nobel prize. So, you can't say that he won't let people verify it to protect his rights over the product.

Oh yes, I can say that, because I'm assuming, whereas you are stating. No offense, just saying...

I believe that Rossi is the kind of person who has strong feelings about justice. He wouldn't be the one who follows the path of least resistance, and let this be 'stolen' by greedy investors, who will not only steal from him but also from customers.
On the other hand he seems to be very smart about this. He's not the kind of headless professor who doesn't care about money stuff, he's doing business.

Assume that his device really works. Then revenue is one thing he particularly has to care about. Winning a nobel prize so far doesn't compare moneywise to marketing a big invention. Besides most people get it best-aged, plus, he would obviously share it. Being famous doesn't pay the bills, right?

It's an irony of history that most famous inventors were also those who were bullheaded enough to market their invention themselves, think of Edison. My conclusion: there is no such thing as a free lunch.

Tzadeck Wrote:Whenever someone is making a ridiculous scientific claim, and not putting it through the proper channels, it's a scam. It's always been that way.

What about just this year's winner of the Nobel Prize in Chemistry, Dan Shechtman? He was rejected by scientific society for years, having discovered quasi-crystals.

Wikipedia Wrote:Shechtman experienced several years of hostility toward his non-periodic interpretation (no less a figure than Linus Pauling said he was "talking nonsense" and "There is no such thing as quasicrystals, only quasi-scientists.").

The head of Shechtman's research group told him to "go back and read the textbook" and then "asked him to leave for 'bringing disgrace' on the team." Shechtman felt rejected.

Also read about the Wright brothers. They often flew secretly or showed so little performance at their demonstrations that the press lost interest. They were extremely reclusive as long as they hadn't legal protection for their invention.

Wikipedia Wrote:The Wright brothers were certainly complicit in the lack of attention they received. Fearful of competitors stealing their ideas, and still without a patent, they flew on only one more day after October 5. From then on, they refused to fly anywhere unless they had a firm contract to sell their aircraft.

Wikipedia Wrote:The Wright brothers did not have the luxury of giving away their invention; it was to be their livelihood. Thus, their secrecy intensified, encouraged by advice from their patent attorney, Henry Toulmin, not to reveal details of their machine.

Well, we can wait a few months and see who is right... an appropriate way to do things as long as we're talking about science.

But, in the mean time, the reason I don't believe is basically the same as the thesis of David Hume's "On Miracles"--whenever someone around you makes a claim that they saw a miracle, which is more likely?

1) They saw a miracle, something that defies all the physical laws that men have come to know.

-or-

2) They are either lying or are mistaken.

You should always pick number two, because it's more likely.

So, here, what is more likely?
1) A man has created a device that defies the laws of physics as currently understood, and is not allowing it to be properly tested by scientists so that he can properly make the deserved money off of his invention.

-or-

2) A man with a history of fraud has committed another fraud.

^^ yes, this is true Tzadeck, but we're talking about a possible scientific invention, NOT your traditional miracle story.

If science took that attitude about everything, no new breakthroughs would be made. In any case, that IS a problem with scienctific discovery, where unexpected results are often cast aside because they don't fit with current theories.

In any case, if it IS a fraud (which it may well be), it doesn't seem to be as much of a shabby, obvious fraud as some people are suggesting. It does seem worth talking about and investigating, rather than just writing it off as an obvious fraud. There do seem to be lots of scientists, that while reserved and sceptical, ARE interested nonetheless. They want to know what the mistake or fraud is based in, if nothing else.

For instance, here's a video from Cambridge University (linked from the wiki page): http://sms.cam.ac.uk/media/1150242

in other words, as long as it's an interesting scam, it's interesting, at least. For those of you thinking it's definately a scam, anyone got any interesting theories about how he's doing it?

IceCream Wrote:^^ yes, this is true Tzadeck, but we're talking about a possible scientific invention, NOT your traditional miracle story.

If science took that attitude about everything, no new breakthroughs would be made. In any case, that IS a problem with scienctific discovery, where unexpected results are often cast aside because they don't fit with current theories.

This is not a normal scientific discovery though. Normally if you discovered something interesting, you'd publish a paper and have it peer reviewed. Once published it gets replicated and verified. None of that has happened in this case.

With such an extraordinary claim, Rossi needs extraordinary evidence to back it up. With no published paper, what he should have done it published detailed data from his experiments, that would allow un-ambiguous proof that the e-cat works as claimed. He hasn't done that. In 11 public experiments, he still hasn't actually proven anything!

It's definitely no obvious fraud, and yes is an interesting story; even getting media coverage now!

Btw, best sources to follow this story are:

http://pesn.com/ (a very positively-biased site, so gets lots of exclusive stories and data. Worth reading for the story comments).
http://blog.newenergytimes.com (very sceptical - the editor 100% believes it's a scam. He's posted rebuttals to most of Rossi's experiments)
http://www.overunity.com (a forum for OU experimenters. Good mix of positive opions and sceptics, interesting discussions).