activeaero Wrote:My take on things from Shinjuku-ku.

Thanks for this video, going to spread the news, that: ゴジラ is not destroying Tokyo, the people are not trembling themselves to death, and the radioactive cloud, that's wiping out Tokyo has been canceled due to scheduling conflicts. Just saying that this is a sure sign that life is normal over there. As far as normal can go in such a situation. And that foreign media is crap, as has been said before, and can't be emphasized enough.

Experts climbing out of some hellhole, i don't know where they are coming from, spreading panic all over the world, while a little Island, somewhere, far away, is trying to recover.

The worst thing are the dead and missing, situation in 福島 may be critical, and things could happen. But nothing HAS happened that is causing fear. Glad that there are some folks like you over there, to present the facts in the proper light.

Reactor Status Update 4 - NPPs in Fukushima as of 19:00 March 15 (Estimated by J・・・PDF

- http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/

LazyNomad Wrote:Let`s not downplay it. It is the next worst thing after Chernobyl.

That's only because Chernobyl was the only truly serious nuclear accident (well, there were others, but they're not as large in the public consciousness). The estimated number of people who died from the Three Mile Island accident is less than one.

People are saying it's "nearly" as bad as Chernobyl because Chernobyl was a 7 on the scale and this is being called probably a 6 (we won't really know until its over). That's like saying an 8 earthquake is nearly as bad as a 9. The scale isn't linear, and isn't even numeric at all. If you read the descriptions, there is an *enourmous* difference between a 6 and a 7. 7 basically means the thing pukes tones of highly radioactive gunk into the atmosphere. I don't think that's even being considered a worst case possibility, much less a probability.

Nuclear accidents are scary. Clearly, this one has eaten into far more layers of defense than one would hope. But until it eats through the the last one, the actual consequences on the outside world are minor. There is confusion as to what is actually breeched when they talk about damage to containment. There are multiple levels of containment. Which exactly was breeched... that's unclear. Unless they all are, the effects of a meltdown will be contained. What happened at Chernobyl wasn't a meltdown, a meltdown was part of the story. Chernobyl was a boiler explosion at a reactor without any sort of secondary containment, followed by a large power excursion (read: small, inefficient nuclear explosion, estimated at 0.01 kT) that threw a large amount of the material in the core into the atmosphere. This was possible because the Chernobyl accident occurred when the reactor was actually active and is not possible at Fukushima for that reason alone (reactor design also makes it impossible due to moderator differences).

There is a lot of confusion in the media over a radiation level being X times over the normal background level vs X times over a safe level. Human beings can handle radiation far above background levels before its considered harmful, and even then you're talking increased risk of cancer, not radiation poisoning. The majority of the media seems to fundamentally (or deliberately) not understand what's going on.

well, ４号機 appears to be on fire again.

they said it's the hydrogen thing again. If anyone understands, please can someone explain the hydrogen thing to me?

From what i get from the NHK, when the fuel rods are exposed, hydrogen starts to build up. When water is put in, it makes it too cramped, and so the hydrogen has to get out somewhere. But, why does the building explode and not the reactor container? Do they vent it into the building itself??

IceCream Wrote:they said it's the hydrogen thing again. If anyone understands, please can someone explain the hydrogen thing to me?

The blog post mentioned by kitakitsune has been updated and is now hosted by MIT. So, it looks like it's more than just one guy's opinion now

http://mitnse.com/

Here's their explanation:

mitnse Wrote:With the water temperature rising in the core, some of the water began to vaporize and eventually uncovered some of the fuel rods. The fuel rods have a layer of cladding material made of a zirconium alloy. If zirconium is hot enough and is in the presence of oxygen (The steam provides the oxygen) then it can undergo a reaction that produces hydrogen gas. Hydrogen at concentrations above 4% is highly flammable when mixed with oxygen; however, not when it is also in the presence of excessive steam.

So, it's the zirconium which seems to be the culprit.

IceCream Wrote:well, ４号機 appears to be on fire again.

they said it's the hydrogen thing again. If anyone understands, please can someone explain the hydrogen thing to me?

From what i get from the NHK, when the fuel rods are exposed, hydrogen starts to build up. When water is put in, it makes it too cramped, and so the hydrogen has to get out somewhere. But, why does the building explode and not the reactor container? Do they vent it into the building itself??

I forget why the hydrogen is produced, but yes, it is deliberately vented to reduce the pressure. I believe there are supposed to be ignitors that flare off the hydrogen before it can build up into an explosive mix, but those aren't functional (rely on electricity maybe??).

This is something i'm not terribly clear on myself. Buildings exploding is not supposed to be part of the plan when dealing with these kind of reactor problems.

Eikyu Wrote:http://mitnse.com/

this blog is awesome!!! i get it now!

Thankyou! (again!!!)

Video I made using photos from some of the links in this thread. I've been pretty upset by all this, especially with lots of friends and previous students in Aomori-ken. They are all OK, but the tragedy that occurred to this nation I love was pretty heartbreaking. I remember some of the videos after 9-11 that really helped me express some of the emotions I felt then, and so I decided to make one here. The international media is spending a LOT of time above huge waves in helicopters and showing footage of destruction on a massive scale from a large distance, throwing around big numbers of casualties and what not. It rather sickens me, as the pain of the individual is lost in such a huge disaster. It reminds me of the pictures of the atomic bomb in the us (shows blast radius) vs. the ones I see in Hiroshima (shows the ash-shadow of the melted children). I made this video to help me connect with the people of the Eastern coast of Japan, and thought I would share it here in case you are interested. It has served it's purpose for me, and I hope that if somebody finds they need it, it helps them as well.

Zorlee Wrote:I'm being evacuated back to Norway, ambassador's order...
This SUCKS!!!!!

Never give up, never surrender!

zigmonty Wrote:The majority of the media seems to fundamentally (or deliberately) not understand what's going on.

May I ask you why do you think you are any more competent in the issue than the majority of the media?

nhk just filmed white smoke pouring out of one of the reactors from a helicopter... loads of it.

IceCream Wrote:nhk just filmed white smoke pouring out of one of the reactors from a helicopter... loads of it.

Steam?

I'm choosing not to worry about explosions or smoke anymore unless radiation levels actually are measured as high.

Thus far the only real danger has been to employees, who seem likely to face a higher risk of cancer (a number I found was a rise of about a 2% increase throughout their lifetime, if they were exposed to 400mSv, above a normal cancer probability of 20-25%). However, if I'm right that the highest recorded level has still been 400mSv, even the employees of the plants have not been exposed to a high enough dose at any point for radiation sickness.

But those are definitely some brave men and women working to save people's asses, and I'm grateful.

kitakitsune Wrote:

IceCream Wrote:nhk just filmed white smoke pouring out of one of the reactors from a helicopter... loads of it.

Steam?

they don't know really... the guy from tepco got really pissed off in the interview, and it ended. Basically, nobody knows anything about anything...

EDIT: definately, those guys working there are amazingly brave!!! it seems like since a lot of them had to evacuate though, things are gradually getting too much for those left to control on their own...

The NYT has an article about the workers:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/...rkers.html

"Five workers have died since the earthquake and 22 more have been injured for various reasons, while two are missing."

I wonder how 2 could "go missing". Buy yeah, they have to be extremely brave.

Brave isn't even good enough a word. To me it's almost like, the question isn't whether or not they are going to die today, but whether they'll be alive tomorrow.

Apparently the workers wanted to evac themselves and the PM got angry and yelled at them. Fair enough really, though I wouldn't want to be in their shoes. If they don't fix it who will?

bet it wasn't in their job description...

Looks like the workers have just withdrawn from the plant...
Not a good sign.

Edit:
Apparently radiation levels reached 1,000mSv at the plant this morning, high enough to cause temporary radiation sickness. (Edit 2: This number seems to be a mistake of the news)

I think they should upgrade the level up to 7. It really is not much different from Chernobyl, given the fire near the pool with spent fuel. All the radiation goes straight to the atmosphere.

this seems to be that MIT blog translated to japanese, if you want to refer anyone to it: http://news.livedoor.com/article/detail/5414245/

The last few interviews were incredibly confusing, they keep mixing up micro and milli Sieverts, which isn't helping the mood... i couldn't follow how much radiation they were talking about in the end... everyone on the chats seem really shrill today as well. Anyone who can say rational things probably should...

EDIT: yeah, Tzadeck that was one of the mistakes, apparently he should have said 1000 micro Sv, and said mSv instead. Unbeleivably bad. But 枝野 is kinda sweet, so...

Wait, I'm confused, wouldn't 1,000 micro Sv not even be dangerous? Doesn't make sense that they'd evacuate the plant for that.

Following the correction of that, they said it's been going up and down, and then followed a mixture of Micro and Mili that i couldn't follow. But none of them sounded as high as 1000 Mili. I think the amount the workers can receive has been raised to 250 mili so they can continue work, but i'm not entirely sure...

Everybody is still reporting 1,000 mSv, but that it was never the average near the plant, just that at least one reading was that high. Still, a single dose that high causes radiation sickness. (Edit: This number is probably drastically too high)

LazyNomad Wrote:I think they should upgrade the level up to 7. It really is not much different from Chernobyl, given the fire near the pool with spent fuel. All the radiation goes straight to the atmosphere.

If they're right, and there was a reading of 1,000 mSv at the plant, that's still three hundred times weaker than the reading given at Chernobyl just after the time of the incident there (300 Sv = 300,000 mSv). That was right near the core, but levels as high as 100,000 mSv were all over the place after the disaster at Chernobyl.

And, well, there are tons of differences. But it's hard to say how bad this could become.

who's reporting it? 保安院 came on and specifically said that that was a mistake, 枝野 also said that it was when the journalists questioned him.