http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/17/world/...gewanted=1

Just another article about the decline of the Japanese economy over the years. No real issues with anything except for this paragraph...

China has so thoroughly eclipsed Japan that few American intellectuals seem to bother with Japan now, and once crowded Japanese-language classes at American universities have emptied. Even Clyde V. Prestowitz, a former Reagan administration trade negotiator whose writings in the 1980s about Japan’s threat to the United States once stirred alarm in Washington, said he was now studying Chinese. “I hardly go to Japan anymore,” Mr. Prestowitz said.

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Emptied of business minded students (I was the only one in my college J-class) but the rise of students studying Japanese because of pop culture like anime and manga over the same time period made up for these losses. IMO.

Chinese may be the language to learn now but I've learned through experience with japanese that you can't really force yourself to learn a language, especially just for business. It doesn't really matter in the long run, everyone has there reasons for learning but not everyone is willing to put the time down in order to truly gain fluency in a language

Money and economic prospects/better life for yourself are huge influences.

Womacks23 Wrote:Money and economic prospects/better life for yourself are huge influences.

True

ta12121 Wrote:you can't really force yourself to learn a language, especially just for business

Hmmm. Tens of millions of people do it every year.

Also I think this article is a little suspect. Compare the UK of the 1980s with the one today. Totally different environment. The post-80s slowing down isn't specific to Japan.

The Japanese classes at OSU certainly aren't emptying; they're the same size they were when I started here 5 years ago and I doubt they were much bigger before that (we start with around 140 1st year students each academic year).

If anything, there are currently TOO many students wanting to learn Japanese at universities. In many situations there simply aren't enough faculty members, since East Asian Language programs aren't as heavily funded as more mainstream subjects.

Womacks23 Wrote:[i]China has so thoroughly eclipsed Japan that few American intellectuals seem to bother with Japan now, and once crowded Japanese-language classes at American universities have emptied. Even Clyde V. Prestowitz, a former Reagan administration trade negotiator whose writings in the 1980s about Japan’s threat to the United States once stirred alarm in Washington, said he was now studying Chinese.

Yeah, pretty bogus journalism right there. I'd like to see their stats on these empty Japanese classrooms, and who gives a **** if Clyde V. Prestowitz is studying Chinese and not going to Japan much? His Wikipedia page says he's fluent in Dutch,German, and French. Does that mean that Holland, Germany and France are overtaking Japan's economy too?

New York Times FAIL.

The number of people who want to learn Japanese has not really diminished. But, you all know that there are many who start learning Japanese, but few persist more than 2 years. The first-year classes are always full, but the 3rd or 4th years are a different situation. And since business prospects are lower in Japan now, there are less people willing to keep studying, in favor of Chinese language.

The article is about how the 20 year deflation has hamstrung Japan, and affected it societally, not about the rise of China, or the loss of interest in Japan by fickle politicians-cum-academics who haven't been in government since the 1980s.

If anything, the smart money should be studying the HELL out of Japan right now, to avoid repeating the same economic mistakes. That's what the article is driving at. (And I agree.)

Also, in spite of all of the mistakes Japan has made, their economy is still 2nd or 3rd, depending on whose stats you believe. (Color me skeptical, but I have issues trusting the Chinese government's numbers. They won't always fess up to things that aren't "convenient" to their political aims.) Not too shabby, considering how badly their economy has taken it on the chin in the last 20 years.

While the author tells a tale of woe in Osaka, he keeps reminding us how things in Tokyo are different.

Well, duh. That's where all the business is happening, and where the largest percentage of Japanese concentrate.

I love Osaka, and I feel terrible for the people there, but if the economy stinks in general, then yeah, anything that's not Tokyo is going to have it rough.

EDIT: And if Japan's economy didn't grow over a 20 year period, yet it still remained #2 the whole time, then what was the rest of the world *doing*? Sleeping?

rich_f Wrote:Also, in spite of all of the mistakes Japan has made, their economy is still 2nd or 3rd, depending on whose stats you believe [...] Not too shabby, considering how badly their economy has taken it on the chin in the last 20 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sov...ublic_debt

Japan's economic situation isn't good. Massive public debt, ageing population...

It's a disaster waiting to happen... which makes it all the more interesting to study.

rich_f Wrote:If anything, the smart money should be studying the HELL out of Japan right now, to avoid repeating the same economic mistakes. That's what the article is driving at. (And I agree.)

Exactly! Coincidentally, an article in the very same newspaper has done precisely that.

I feel like there are more people wanting to learn Japanese than 20 years ago. Even Sushi back then was like a barbarian food.

I don't know about the number, but my gut feeling is that there are more people who are genuinely interested in Japanese culture now than the bubble period when there are a lot of people who were just after money.

I've seen the full effects of this decline. The once popular RTK forum is now a dwindling remnant of its former glory, and the ever modest Fabrice must now turn tricks in order to make ends meet. It's a sad affair for Tora, who used to enjoy schooling the naughty little boys online, as she must now do so in real life.... and that's not nearly as fun . IceCream unfortunately has melted and become stale. Without Tobberoth to challenge her every post she slipped into a massive depression - and offed herself. It's been discover that Aijin, Magamo, and Masaman were merely internet bots, assuming the guise of "Native Japanese."

Nest0r still lurks in the shadows, posting semi interesting articles, but alas, she must now argue with herself over the validity and ramifications of the data.

As for womack, he's said to owns 32 individual accounts with varying IP addresses, names, and posting styles. What he does with them, one can only imagine. But rumor has it, he managed to make the forum appear alive for nearly a decade before going insane.

Let's just not mention bodhisamaya's problem with alcoholism.

harhol Wrote:

rich_f Wrote:Also, in spite of all of the mistakes Japan has made, their economy is still 2nd or 3rd, depending on whose stats you believe [...] Not too shabby, considering how badly their economy has taken it on the chin in the last 20 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sov...ublic_debt

Japan's economic situation isn't good. Massive public debt, ageing population...

It's a disaster waiting to happen... which makes it all the more interesting to study.

Oh yeah, I'm not saying it's all sunshine and rainbows. It's definitely more of a trainwreck than a train ride, but it's still fascinating as hell how it manages to keep going forward, and as I said, they still managed to stay ahead of 99% of the rest of the world during those 20 years.

What amazes me is how they get so much buy-in from the Japanese people on Japanese bonds... and what's going to happen when the (mostly older) folks who own those bonds start cashing them in or trying to sell them.

With a dwindling population, and no desire to bring in immigrants to boost up numbers, just who do they think will buy those crappy bonds? No foreign investors in their right mind would touch those things. Only someone with a direct interest would buy in, and that's either a native, a permanent resident, or someone who plans on retiring there.

Although I guess those of us in the US shouldn't really talk about other countries' massive government debts. We're pretty good at running those up ourselves, and we're staring budgetary armageddon in the eyes as well, as the Baby Boomers start drawing Medicare en masse and run things up to levels you can't even comprehend without scientific notation.

There won't be enough money to print to pay for it all.

So yeah, lots of things to learn from Japan.