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I agree, which is why I probably should have just not mentioned that Jim Breen thing. The dilemma with kanji studies is that there's a very severe situation of diminish returns in studying them. I know these statistics are well worn, but the newspaper studies show that the most common 150 characters account for 50%, 500 for 80%, 1000 for 94.5%, 2000 for 99.7%, 2500 for 99.9213%, and 3000 for 99.9742%. Studies in Chinese also come up with almost the same numbers.
Given that, it's hard to say how many kanji you actually need to study. Going from 2000 to 2500 gives you an increase of .22% in kanji coverage, which isn't much. I think it's up to each individual learner to decide when they hit the point where the improvement they get out of kanji study is less than their interest in it. You're never going to hit a point where you can say "OK, I'm done, I have studied every kanji that I will ever see." Of course there are extremes -- 1000 is probably not enough, and 10,000 is most likely overdoing it. But the number of kanji, and which kanji, someone needs to know are also heavily dependent on exactly what they're going to be reading and how much they read. Taking any list, whether the Jouyou, or JIS level 1, or "2500 kanji", or RTK 1 + 3 and declaring that to be what you need for "fluency" is arbitrary.
(I also think that as your Japanese improves, there's actually a paradox where you don't need as many kanji because, like a native speaker, you can figure out the meaning of words from context even if they contain kanji you haven't seen before.)
Edited: 2009-10-17, 3:10 pm
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The diminishing return has come into play for me for many aspects of my Japanese studies.
For Kanji, I stopped halfway into RTK3, but I'd argue that one can do just well with RTK Lite (either version) then add kanji as you get to them. At 2500, I've only added an additional 35 that I've come across "naturally" in studying. Basically, I spent too much time on kanji.
For Grammar, I did Tae Kim which seems reasonable on returns. I do come across items now and again not in Tae Kim, but not so much. I think I've spent the right amount of time with these.
For Vocabulary, I did iKnow 2000 then went to adding as I came to them. I'm still adding a lot of words. Probably was a few more "common words" that could be needed. Thing is, it's not that I did not spend enough time, I just probably used the wrong source. Based on other testimony, KO2001 may be the best source to learn 3500 basic (and useful) vocabulary fast.
There may be a "sweet spot" of Kanji, Vocabulary and Grammar concepts to learn but that's a hard spot to find. Probably you'll realize it after the fact. Plus, it'll be different for each person.
Either way, one does need to get to native material proper and try learning off those. The sweet spot is just meant to get you going with the native material at the ideal pace. I think we're finding what can work best on average.
Yeah, I used the above with an SRS. They're basic and soon you'll see them soon enough in native material. But in the build-up, the SRS prevents memory decay so you're not reproducing effort later.
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I'm going to side with Matthew here. It's silly to think that a normal, functioning Japanese adult would only know a thousand kanji. That's what a beginning Japanese learner would know after having completed a book like Kanji Odyssey 2001. I think the whole argument rests on a misunderstanding of what it means to know a character. If you define knowledge of a character as the ability to draw it perfectly, to know all of its readings or to identify it out of context then perhaps you might find that Japanese know no more than a thousand kanji. But that's for all practical purposes a meaningless figure. What is certain is that Japanese can recognize and read much more than 1000 characters when used as part of a text. You would probably have to look hard to find even a high school student who could not recognize 稀, let alone 滅 or 更 when placed in context (or even out of context I would say).
Just for fun, I replaced the four characters that you have identified with question marks. That's how the text would look to someone who only knows a thousand characters.
方向指示器(ほうこうしじき)とは、自動車、オートバイ等に付ける保安部品で、右左折や進路変?の際に、その方向を周囲に示すための装置である。方向を灯火の点?で示すことから、日本では通常、ウインカー(英語: winker“まばたきするもの”)と言うが、現在英語?において winker と言うことは?である。
Edited: 2009-10-17, 5:06 pm
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Out of curiosity, would you say that the average adult American knows all the vocabulary from the SAT?
Edited: 2009-10-17, 8:17 pm
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I would not. But the SAT is a test aimed at aspiring university students. 1000 kanji is the standard expected out of Grade 6 students.
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Well, to be fair, I find the 1000 number a little surprising as well and I wonder whether the original scholar meant that the average Japanese person would only be able to know around 1000 kanji out of context (and presumably a fair amount more in context), which I would find easier to accept. (3000 still seems like a very high number for an average native speaker, though -- I think saying that an average Japanese native speaker knows 3000 kanji would be like someone saying that the average American knows all the words on the SAT.)
Edited: 2009-10-17, 9:19 pm
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I'd say the average native speaker would know around 2000 with knowledge of kanji beyond that being present but possibly incomplete if you get what I mean.
I think jinmeiyou kanji is a good example, I'm sure Japanese know lots of most it or whatever but lots of the time names are displayed with furigana so ppl know how to read them and such. Place names too perhaps.
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You can't learn Japanese without using SRS, just like you can't learn kanji without using stories, via the Heisig method. 'Nuff said, ruiner out.
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It's a quote from the Pisa study that Matthias mentioned; it indicates that Japan's literacy is similar to other countries at least among 15 year olds. I'm certainly not disagreeing that there are a number of highly literate Japanese who can probably handle 3000 characters, and maybe more -- what I don't agree with is the idea that 3000 is a standard that any Japanese person can be expected to know, and more relevantly, that 3000 kanji (or 2500) is a standard that learners must aim at if they want to be "fluent".
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I'm not a native speaker, but I understand enough kanji that I can read novels and such--and I don't know every word, but I know what I need to know.
Looking at the kanji frequency table in my kanji dictionary, 1600-1615 are:
顕、鈍、隅、凶、糾、塾
誓、酬、冗、紺、漂、桃
伯、庶、晶、尻
I guess that 晶 has become more common since my dictionary was compiled, with the rise of liquid crystal displays. 鈍、隅、誓、漂、紺、桃 are ones I seem to come across pretty frequently in my reading. You couldn't live in Japan without coming across 塾 all the time. 冗談 is common enough to be worth knowing but I don't know if I've ever seen 冗 in any other compounds. Depending on your choice of reading material 尻 can be pretty common. 伯父さん is one of the possible ways of writing おじさん, but I think I only know it because I was reading a manga with a Count Something-Or-Other (伯爵).
凶、庶 I know only vaguely.
顕、糾、酬 I cannot recall having ever seen before.
My point is that, indeed, as you get to the less common kanji (1500 and up, maybe?) you start running into more and more kanji -- like 伯 and 尻 -- that are way more common in certain contexts than in others, and kanji that you can get by very well without knowing depending on what it is exactly that you need to read.
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I would say I pretty much agree with your last post Yudan. Until someone finds a study that tells us how many kanji Japanese speakers know on average, it's impossible to come up with a hard number. My feeling though is that 2500-3000 is not exaggerated.
Looking at the kanji that Fillanzea has brought up, I think this tells us that kanji in the 1600-1615 range are still pretty common and do not qualify as rare or exotic by any means. Out of those, I don't remember having seen 糾 and 凶. 顕, I have seen has part of けんびきょう, microscope. 酬 is part of ほうしゅう and 庶 is part of しょみん.
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顕、鈍、隅、凶、糾、塾
誓、酬、冗、紺、漂、桃
伯、庶、晶、尻
I think that list is a good example of kanji that you don't necessarily need to specifically study in isolation because most of them only show up in a small number of words, sometimes only one word (e.g. 桃色, 誓う, 報酬, 尻, 塾, 庶民, 結晶). 糾 is the only one there that is totally unknown to me; 凶悪 shows up sometimes in video games.
In addition, there are several examples of kanji there that you might see a lot if you're reading the right things, but you might not see at all in other types of reading -- I would say that 凶、酬、伯、and 庶 may qualify there.
But now look at the higher numbers -- here's 10 kanji around the 2500 mark for frequency:
彗 牌 醍 塑 漸 穣 砦 醐 沓 迪
I recognize the first one from 彗星, the second one from Mah Jong terms (聴牌 means you only need one more tile to win), 砦 from video games, and 醍醐 because Emperor Daigo shows up a lot in writings about Genji. But obviously we're getting into heavily specialized terms and I think you would find a lot of variation even among native speakers as to which of those they would know.
Now move up to 2900:
靡 顯 躬 贅 蜃 糺 秉 猥 熾 杣
顯 is kind of a gimme because it's just the old form of 顕. 贅沢 is probably fairly recognizable, and for some reason I feel like I've seen 猥褻 before, but the other 7 are totally opaque.
(怯 is almost at 3000, but 怯える and 卑怯 are pretty common, maybe just not in newspapers.)
Edited: 2009-10-18, 12:27 pm