overture2112 Wrote:Wozniak Wrote:If you set your forgetting index to 10%, you will remember 90% of the material at repetitions. This does not imply that your knowledge retention will be 90% only. Your average retention will be nearly 95%! This comes from the fact that 90% refers to the retention at repetitions, while the initial retention right after the repetition is theoretically 100%. During the inter-repetition interval, retention is decreasing from 100% to 90%. On average you roughly remember 95% of the material.
I don't understand how this works. Lets say I've been studying using Anki for one year. I have 700 cards studied (so 700 cards will at some point come up for review at a future time). I have cards with intervals from 1 day to 2 years. My intervals are more or less evenly spaced from 1 day to 2 years (so, with 700 cards, about 350 cards will have an interval from 1 day to 1 year, and about 350 cards will have an interval from 1 year to 2 years). I have about one card due per day. I have about 20 "young" cards and the rest "mature" cards.
Now lets assume that my recall rate is 90%. If you look at the card due tomorrow, I will have about a 90% chance of getting it right. But if you look at cards farther into the future, I will have a much higher chance of getting them right. For instance, if I (jump ahead and) look at a card that should be due in a week, I will have more than a 90% chance of getting it right, because I'm reviewing it really early. If I look at a card that will be due in a month, I will have a REALLY high chance of getting it right. If I look at a card that should be due in a year, I will have an almost 100% chance of getting it right.
So while my recall rate is only 90%, the amount of cards in my deck that I will be able to recall at any one time should be close to 100%. Lets call this my
total recall rate.
Now, my example deck above is very contrived. In real decks, if you have a lot of young cards and cards due soon, then your
total recall rate would be much lower than if you had a lot of very mature cards and cards due far in the future. However, it's hard for me to believe that Wozniak could say "On average you roughly remember 95% of the material." Doesn't it really depend on the amount of cards due soon vs. the amount of cards due far into the future?
Edit: Maybe "forgetting index" doesn't mean (100% - recall_rate)?
Edited: 2013-02-08, 4:56 am