Hey Guys,

I've been on the forum for a while now, but this is my first post. I noticed how no one had figured out how to determine the number of Anki reviews based on how many new cards/day you added, so I decided to code a simulator and share the results here. I don't know how to embed pictures here, so I'm just posting a link to photobucket for the results, and a link to mediafire for the java project if you want to run your own simulation.

http://i1298.photobucket.com/albums/ag41...431f80.png

http://www.mediafire.com/?po58ptz5r4ldb74

My methodology:
First off, if you know the numbers better than me or have a better idea for my method, please let me know and I'll re-upload everything. The default settings (in the picture I gave) have the following values:
Hard = interval*1.1
Good = interval*2.5
Easy = interval*3.0
Deck Size = 6000 cards
Duration = 120 days
Selected good 80%, hard and easy 5%, and fail 10% of the time (which were approximately my numbers in my actual deck)

I ran the simulation 100 times and averaged the numbers. Reviews include learning new cards and do not include relearning failed cards. I picked 6000 to simulate learning the core6k, the deck I'm most interested in.

I am aware that Anki 2 has an ease factor that adjusts based on your responses, but that was a little too complicated for me to code in a day. Please remember that this is only intended to be an estimate.

To run your own numbers:
Download the package from mediafire and unzip the folder. Make sure you have a Java IDE installed on your computer (I use Eclipse, which is free). Import the package into Eclipse, click on Anki.java which is in src/(default package), and click Run--Run As--Run as Java Application. I put in some GUI so once you figure out eclipse, it'll be really easy to run the simulations with numbers of your choosing.

Happy SRSing!

This would be really cool as a plugin to anki. It could take your actual stats from your deck.

without Eclipse, a single jar (runnable) file:
http://depositfiles.com/files/7fw01cc1w

I have never used the plot panel, so I do not know how you achieved that multi-color diagram.

That's a pretty interesting curve. I've always wanted this, Thanks!

Thanks for creating the .jar! As much as I code in Java, I never really need to send it to other people, so I don't know much about running outside the IDE. The library I used actually did the colors for me.

For those who don't know, to run that file that xfact sent, open a command window, navigate to the folder with the file in it and type java -jar AnkiPlot.jar

An Anki plugin would be an interesting idea that I'll look into.

Here's a quick hack.

Let's say on average, a card takes 10-20 reviews before it reaches the point where you will die before it comes again. That's a pretty fair estimate I think.

Then let's say on average you add 150 cards per day.

The 'steady state' reviews per day (i.e. the plateau that you will reach) is 150*(10-20) or 1500 - 3000.