The antimoon guys have voice samples on their website. Not what I'd call flawless, but more impressive than most I hear.
The avoiding mistakes thing has always made a lot of sense to me. If you get enough of the correct input (and imitate accurately), it'll start to come out right in the first place, and you won't need to practice doing it wrong before you get it right. You don't practice getting the right form on the piano by putting your fingers flat and then working up to a bubble. You start with the bubble, or else you spend a lot of time relearning things later when you realize the way you were doing it just won't cut it anymore, or else you never become a competent piano player. The same is very transparently true of any other physical task (which pronunciation is) that you can think of; start correct, stay correct. It's true of mental tasks as well, but more difficult to express convincingly.
More than anything, I find the idea convincing because I've seen enough people who learn by output and (consequently) mistakes first. People who come here and live their whole life here and still make the same mistakes over and over. Or people who receive incorrect input; many of my relatives and particularly my father, who has been speaking in an uneducated manner for so long it's pretty much impossible for him to stop now.
"Fluency is as important as accuracy" isn't a statement that makes a lot of sense to me, as fluency, while measuring ease, implies that the ease involves accuracy. I know people who quite easily speak 'English', but 70% of the time I can't understand what the hell they're trying to say because the English that comes easily is also a grammatical train wreck and the pronunciation isn't any better.. I'm not inclined to call that fluency.
I'm not sure where you've seen a progression of terrible to perfect as related to pronunciation. I've never encountered this myself. Normally I see a pronunciation of bad progress to bad, or good progress to... good. This comes from first-hand experience and watching, for instance, celebrities as they learn the language. An example that comes to mind very quickly is Jackie Chan, who had to start reciting English lines before he knew any English at all, and now, at this point, is still difficult to understand in a movie and incomprehensible outside of one. But I'm not saying my experience is all that broad, or that it's impossible - you CAN always improve something that you're doing wrong. I'm just not sure it's a reliable trend to hope for.
It's not that you should never speak, either. Not that you should never write. It's fine to speak while you're imitating someone else as accurately as possible. It's not alright to speak with no basis for comparison, until you've already got a grasp on whatever it is you're trying to say. It's fine to write out native speaker's sentences. It's not alright to write your own sentences until you're already sure what you're writing is correct.
I think this actually goes along with your initial post, which has me confused. As you said, you don't want the wrong path to build there. If you're sitting there struggling for a kanji story, you're using and building on the wrong pathway; get rid of it and make the correct one. The same is true of everything else; don't practice speaking incorrectly, or you're only building and reinforcing the wrong mental paths. Just imitate a native speaker and build the right ones.
As it happens, I think I'm the one who said something about deep long term memories being harder to withdraw (
http://www.wired.com/medtech/health/maga...ntPage=all). I think that's still true, but as relates to kanji recall I think I've changed my mind on the relevance. Deeply ingrained somewhere or not, renewing the correct path for active recall seems like a good idea.
Edited: 2008-06-14, 10:15 pm