Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again?

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - Printable Version

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Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - qwertyytrewq - 2013-10-11

When you think about it, it is surprising that a tiny country like Japan has as much influence and impact as it does or did. Say the word Japan to someone, and they will already have their own image of it in their mind and this image will be wildly different for everyone. In contrast, for countries like say, Kazhakstan, or Singapore, or pre-Bush Iran, or pre-Obama North Korea, or whatever, at best nobody cares, at worst, nobody is even aware of it. Like they say, bad publicity is better than no publicity.

Anyway, several decades ago, as Japanese car companies and cars were taking over USA, people were saying that Japan will become the next great superpower (same thing they're saying of China now). This era of thought can be seen in movies like Blade Runner (I think it was in Neo Tokyo). Obviously that never happened but I imagine that that the influence of the Japanese economy encouraged people to take up Japanese learning. I call this Peak #1.

Then in the 80s and 90s, Japan influenced the world again, this time artistically. This was when Nintendo saved the world gaming industry and what some call the golden age of anime. In this age, every good video game was Japanese-developed. No, practically EVERY game was Japanese. Also, Westerners can finally watch cartoons that are not for children unlike Disney and read comic books that involve something other than superheroes wearing their underwear on the outside. The majority of the media was untranslated. Which encourages people to learn Japanese. I call this Peak #2.

But now, Japan's economy has gone downhill (off topic: every econimy has gone downhill) and furthermore, people care less about Japanese media now, and for the stuff they do care about, it has been translated into English. People have fewer or no reasons to learn Japanese now.

Will this trend remain this way or will we somehow see a Peak #3? If a peak is coming, what will spark it?

Off topic: What will be the next hot language after Chinese if the hype dies down? Spanish? Arabic? Korean?

Or will the international community naturally unify into one single language, most likely English? After all, language only serves to be a barrier and there doesn't seem to be a rational reason to use more than one.

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - dizmox - 2013-10-11

Sales of Japanese animation and games may be down but I think 2D related media is as popular as it has ever been internationally. If you look at related message boards/forums, you'd see there's clearly strong interest in learning Japanese remaining among serious fans, despite availability of subtitles. It's also easier than it's ever been due to the availability of advice+resources to learn and practice being freely available online. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a peak right now.

Quote:After all, language only serves to be a barrier and there doesn't seem to be a rational reason to use more than one.

It would be boring if there were only one.

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - Codexus - 2013-10-11

qwertyytrewq Wrote:When you think about it, it is surprising that a tiny country like Japan has as much influence and impact as it does or did.

Japan isn't really "tiny". It's the 10th most populated country in the world (127 million inhabitants is twice as much as UK for example). Since most of the more populated countries are not as developped economically, it is the 3rd largest world economy having been just recently overtaken by China. Japan is also dense which can be a benefit, the Greater Tokyo Area being the most populated metropolitan area in the world. So much for tiny.

It's not surprising that Japan has a lot of influence even if you only look at the numbers. Then there is the culture, the popular culture exports, its technological expertise.

The next big thing for Japan, maybe robots? All those silly awkward walking robots trying to pass for humanoid, well pretty soon they won't be silly anymore... And Japan is really the best in robotics Smile

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - rujing - 2013-10-11

Probably not. I think the high proportion of elderly citizens in Japan will have some negative effect on the creativity and liveliness. And Japan might lose its appeal to the young people gradually.

And I believe that Arabic would be the next hot language.

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - s0apgun - 2013-10-11

qwertyytrewq Wrote:This era of thought can be seen in movies like Blade Runner (I think it was in Neo Tokyo).

The setting was in Neo Los Angeles. There was a large emphasis on overpopulation, multiculturalism, and mega-corporations (Japanese ones at that) so I could see how you could mistake that.

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - vileru - 2013-10-11

Codexus Wrote:And Japan is really the best in robotics

It depends how you look at it. This is correct if you're talking about overall quantity of industrial robots or the quality of and amount of research on automotive robots or androids.

When it comes to education and innovation and robots used for practical applications, most scientists and engineers working in robotics would say the U.S. is the best.

MIT is more or less recognized as the leading university in the world for studying and researching robotics. Instead of just one robotics program, it has several. Open up any top academic journal about robotics, and there will probably be more articles from MIT than any other university. Furthermore, several private robotics companies have been founded by MIT faculty, graduates, and affiliates.

As for practical applications, when housekeeping and robots are mentioned, "Roomba" is the first word that comes to mind. In medicine, there's the Da Vinci Surgical System. However, above all other applications, those involving space exploration or the military are the most advanced (although, I find the latter case to be unfortunate). Along with the Mars exploration rovers, various other robots have been used as probes or on the ISS. And right now, there are probably robotic military aircraft (a.k.a. drones) flying somewhere above Africa or the Middle East. Unbeknownst to the world, DARPA has been relentlessly pursuing military-related robotic research for several years on an annual budget in the billions of USD. In fact, U.S. military robots were used (and perhaps are still being used) to monitor the power plants after the Fukushima disaster. While the U.S. gets a lot less publicity (and I think this is on purpose), it's been silently leading the world in robotics in recent years.

Anyway, as an American, I'm sure this post comes off with a "Ha! We're number one!" attitude. However, that's not my intention. Rather, I think researchers in the U.S. should receive the credit they deserve and, more importantly, attention should be drawn to the alarming focus the U.S. has on military applications for robots.

On an amusing side note, I was actually unaware of how advanced robotics in the U.S. is until I saw this documentary (the relevant segment begins at 17:40) when I was in Japan. I first saw it in Japanese, but unfortunately I could only find the English version.

Edit: bonus

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - dizmox - 2013-10-11

Call it 事大主義, but sometimes I wish I were American ( ；∀；)　 (with permanent Japanese residency!)

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - Bokusenou - 2013-10-11

dizmox Wrote:Call it 事大主義, but sometimes I wish I were American ( ；∀；)　 (with permanent Japanese residency!)

Hmm, the US has its own flaws though, like any country.

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - dizmox - 2013-10-12

That's why I don't want to live there, just have it on my passport to feel good about it.

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - vix86 - 2013-10-12

qwertyytrewq Wrote:Will this trend remain this way or will we somehow see a Peak #3? If a peak is coming, what will spark it?

Off topic: What will be the next hot language after Chinese if the hype dies down? Spanish? Arabic? Korean?

Or will the international community naturally unify into one single language, most likely English? After all, language only serves to be a barrier and there doesn't seem to be a rational reason to use more than one.

I'm not sure anime/games would count as a "peak" 2 in my opinion because I doubt it turned out a lot of Japanese users that actually went on to use it a ton more. It definitely brought in learners but many people end up hobbyists of the langauge it seems. Compared to the first jump in learners of the language which was driven by the idea that Japan would be a superpower in the world, and businesses needed people that could communicate, they trained many people to actually use the language. The second peak will come when Japan starts producing innovative businesses that make the world go "Hmm, we need to start taking them more seriously than we have."

The next fad language will be from a rising developing country. I'd say Mongolia but it is too isolated from the sea to ever gain the kind of status China has. India still remains a player and I'm not really sure they've really tapped their full talent yet. Really it just depends how willing the governments in these countries are to let businesses run wild.

That said, English isn't going away and it'll only continue to be more prominent in coming years. Most schools in East Asia and Africa teach English from a very young age; this is true in numerous countries all over the world, because English is the language where money and business is done. For any other language to wiggle in and stay, the country(s) would have to show themselves to be lasting economic powers. I guess the world has the British Empire, before, and the American Empire, now, to thank for it.

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - patriconia - 2013-10-12

I'd say there were actually three waves of Japanese language learning, at least in the West. The first main one were cultural and literary scholars who studied it to explore Japan's rich cultural and literary tradition once it became more accessible to Westerners. Think of people like Donald Keene. Then the business wave followed, and then the otaku wave, which ironically could be seen as a continuation of the first wave in that it returned focus to Japan's cultural output. I majored in Japanese in college and say my department was geared towards the first wave, but filled with people from the third wave...don't really remember meeting business centered people.

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - vix86 - 2013-10-12

patriconia Wrote:but filled with people from the third wave...don't really remember meeting business centered people.

Colleges are filled with Japanese learners driven to it from pop culture, in exactly the same way adults and seniors are driven to eikaiwas in Japan. In both cases the number of learners is high but it doesn't exactly translate into people with much skill or people that can use the language that well.

If your school lacked an international business program with a "Asian Business" program, that may be why you never saw any business centered people. Additionally, there's no reason why someone in business can't become a learner because of pop culture either.

In my experience, many people driven to learn the language because of pop culture (in college classes) don't really reach N2+.

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - vonPeterhof - 2013-10-12

vix86 Wrote:Additionally, there's no reason why someone in business can't become a learner because of pop culture either.

Present

The undergrad biz school I attended didn't offer Japanese classes (there was a small Chinese group though), but in my year group of circa 200 people there were at least two students aside from me who were learning Japanese, and I know for a fact that at least one of them was motivated by pop culture (his dream was to work in the Japanese recording industry). So yeah, probably not much of a business-driven wave in Saint Petersburg. I bet that if my b-school happened to be in Vladivostok the numbers would have been bigger, even in spite of the Chinese boom.

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - dtcamero - 2013-10-12

vileru Wrote:On an amusing side note, I was actually unaware of how advanced robotics in the U.S. is until I saw this documentary (the relevant segment begins at 17:40) when I was in Japan. I first saw it in Japanese, but unfortunately I could only find the English version.

here's the japanese version of that documentary:
http://pan.baidu.com/share/link?shareid=392836&uk=724554612

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - uisukii - 2013-10-12

edit: post got eaten by the Matrix and did not post properly.

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - Stansfield123 - 2013-10-13

qwertyytrewq Wrote:Or will the international community naturally unify into one single language, most likely English? After all, language only serves to be a barrier and there doesn't seem to be a rational reason to use more than one.

Languages aren't fixed things. They evolve over time. And they've already been doing so very quickly (many languages spoken 200 years ago are difficult to recognize already to modern speakers), but with the communication boom of the last few decades that will only speed up. So it won't be "English".

The lead language will be from whichever culture ends up creating most new concepts and pieces of technology, because that's the culture that will get the naming rights. Currently, that's American culture, but it doesn't look like it will stay that way for long. And that doesn't mean that all new words will come from this one language, they will come from various languages. But mostly from the one who's speakers have the economic and cultural lead.

This next part is only speculation, but it's based on current trends, it's not just a random guess:

The direction major languages will evolve in will be to sound more and more like each other. At some point, major languages will become one language, with different dialects (this doesn't mean people will automatically understand all dialects, but it will be much easier to learn them, than it is to learn a different language).

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - Stansfield123 - 2013-10-13

dizmox Wrote:That's why I don't want to live there, just have it on my passport to feel good about it.

Fun fact: the US is one of the few countries that taxes (well, tries to tax) its expats. So, unless you like being stolen from for no reason, a US expat is something you don't want to be. Especially if you then also live in Japan.

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - Stansfield123 - 2013-10-13

qwertyytrewq Wrote:But now, Japan's economy has gone downhill (off topic: every economy has gone downhill)

That's a myth I keep hearing. Setting aside various warzones (of which there are fewer than ever before, thanks mainly to so called American "militarism"), Europe's economy has gone downhill (except for Germany and the UK, which are stagnating), another about third of the world is stagnating (US, Japan, parts of Latin America), and then the rest of the world's population (over half) is in the midst of a spectacular economic boom.

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - tashippy - 2013-10-13

Stansfield123 Wrote:This next part is only speculation, but it's based on current trends, it's not just a random guess:

The direction major languages will evolve in will be to sound more and more like each other. At some point, major languages will become one language, with different dialects (this doesn't mean people will automatically understand all dialects, but it will be much easier to learn them, than it is to learn a different language).

Can you provide a citation please? I'd like to read something about this.
You're like the opposite of nest0r Tongue

Stansfield123 Wrote:
dizmox Wrote:That's why I don't want to live there, just have it on my passport to feel good about it.
Fun fact: the US is one of the few countries that taxes (well, tries to tax) its expats. So, unless you like being stolen from for no reason, a US expat is something you don't want to be. Especially if you then also live in Japan.

Didn't know that (I've never lived abroad). How do they do it? How is it avoided (perhaps you'd rather not say). Wink

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - dizmox - 2013-10-13

Stansfield123 Wrote:
dizmox Wrote:That's why I don't want to live there, just have it on my passport to feel good about it.
Fun fact: the US is one of the few countries that taxes (well, tries to tax) its expats. So, unless you like being stolen from for no reason, a US expat is something you don't want to be. Especially if you then also live in Japan.

I forgot about that. How does that even work? You end up getting taxed double?

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - Stansfield123 - 2013-10-13

tashippy Wrote:Didn't know that (I've never lived abroad). How do they do it? How is it avoided (perhaps you'd rather not say).

I can say, it's no secret. The main method the US has of gaining access to Americans' foreign bank account information is by threatening foreign institutions into disclosing personal information wholesale, without the US government showing probable cause of a crime being committed (not unlike how they spy on innocent people's online activities and phone calls). Both the NSA's and the IRS's wholesale collection of personal information has escalated during the Obama administration (see for instance the many news articles about the Obama administration successfully obtaining all Americans' account information from Swiss banks; again, not just the information of people suspected of crimes, based on probable cause: ALL AMERICANS' information, handed over wholesale).

The way to avoid that is to either never mention the American citizenship to the bank (in most cases that can only be accomplished by having dual citizenship or residency, since you need some kind of ID to open an account), or by only dealing with banks who don't usually deal with American citizens (so that the US has no reason to bother strong arming them into handing over information on their American clients).

One would also hope that recent revelations about widespread US violations of privacy rights would scare away some countries from cooperating with the Obama administrations' hunting expeditions.

dizmox Wrote:I forgot about that. How does that even work? You end up getting taxed double?

I don't know how it works exactly (I'm not American, so I never bothered looking into it too deep). All I know is that it does exist, and that more and more American expats give up their US citizenship to escape it (I also know that it only applies to US federal taxes, which are pretty low for people under the median US income). So you have to be doing pretty well before you're affected enough to be worth dumping the US passport (the most famous person to do it was Facebook co-founder Eduardo Saverin, just before Facebook went public; he's a citizen of Singapore now, and according to a Bloomberg article I read, he saved $67 million in US taxes).

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - tashippy - 2013-10-13

Stansfield123 Wrote:Eduardo Saverin...saved $67 million in US taxes).

Damn, we could have bout like have a fighter jet with that money! Is that $ amount from just one year?

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - blueshift - 2013-10-13

I believe US citizens are only taxed on overseas income if it is over a certain amount; maybe $60000 a year?

On the other hand, Canadian citizens are double taxed.

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - ktcgx - 2013-10-13

blueshift Wrote:I believe US citizens are only taxed on overseas income if it is over a certain amount; maybe $60000 a year?

On the other hand, Canadian citizens are double taxed.

According to posts I've seen on the official JETs forum, the amount is $90,000. Anything under that threshold will not be taxed, but you have to fill out tax returns each year declaring your income etc.

Will demand for Japanese language learning ever hit a peak again? - vix86 - 2013-10-14

ktcgx Wrote:According to posts I've seen on the official JETs forum, the amount is $90,000. Anything under that threshold will not be taxed, but you have to fill out tax returns each year declaring your income etc.

This sounds about right, but the amount can change year to year depending on what Congress changes in the tax code.

Its also worth noting that you only start getting taxed on income over that 90k. You also have a lot of other expenses which can be claimed on your return as well. If you pay for your own living expenses (rent, utilities, food, car, etc.) all of these can be claimed too. I'm pretty sure with deductions, you could avoid paying anything on taxes well up to about $150k a year.